What Bumper Harvest Means for Manufacturing

By Michelo Maunga

Zambian society collectively welcomed Government’s announcement on 22^nd May 2025 of a projected maize bumper harvest in the 2024/25 farming season. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 3,655,645 MT of the staple crop is expected to be harvested this year. This is a development that will provide wide ranging benefits to the economy and the Zambian people; such as reducing mealie meal prices, slowing inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate and fostering broad-based social harmony, amongst others. Against a backdrop of the drought in the 2023/24 farming season and the associated failed harvest across much of the country, with this announcement, citizens have breathed a collective sigh of relief. Whilst much has been explored on the obvious implications of the bumper harvest, little is in the public domain on what it means for the manufacturing sector, which shall be the premise of this analysis.

According to the Zambia Statistics Agency (2025), the manufacturing sector contributed 9.2% of the economy’s Gross Domestic Product in 2024, which was the fourth highest sectoral contribution behind, Retail Trade, Mining & Quarrying and Transport & Storage, respectively. This was an increase from 8.5% in 2023. The uptick in performance was despite an increasingly shock prone business environment, characterized by energy and raw material deficits during the material year. The sector features prominently in policy documents such as Vision 2030 and the 8th National Development Plan. According to the former, manufacturing value added contribution to GDP is targeted to reach 36.12% by 2030, whereas the 8NDP has prioritized the sector in its economic transformation and job creation pillar. The sector’s contribution to employment is equally substantial, with the 2023 Labour Force Survey (2023), ranking it as the 3^rd highest contributor to employment.

The impact of the drought in 2023/24 was multifaceted. Firstly, the entire sector was burdened by power rationing effected by the Zambia Electricity Service Corporation (ZESCO), due to dwindling water levels in hydro-electricity reservoirs. Secondly, a more specific ramification concerned the agro-processing sub-sector, a leading contributor to manufacturing sector output, locally. Within this subset are producers of alcoholic & non-alcoholic beverages, value added food products, confectionaries, textiles, wood & tobacco products, to mention but a few. Allied products make up not only the bulk of manufactured produce within the local market, but are responsible for a sizable share of the country’s Non-Traditional Exports, with agricultural products accounting for 26.3% of NTEs in December 2024, a trend which was reflected through much of the year. These producers are reliant on farmers for agricultural primary commodities. Farming output was, however, severely constrained during the course of last year. The scarcity of produce, further resulted in escalating prices that fed through to food inflation and a rising consumer price index.

The El Nino weather phenomenon exposed severe vulnerabilities in the local agricultural value chain, as relates to low yields and a heavy reliance on rain fed farming practises. According to a parliamentary report from the Committee on Agriculture, Land & Natural Resources (2019), 2.75 million hectares of land are available and suitable for irrigation in Zambia. Out of this amount, only a meagre, 155,912 hectares was under irrigation. Accordingly, reduced rainfall in 2023/24 resulted in constrained output of small holder farmers, who, whilst responsible for 90% of national maize output, also face the brunt of climate change and inadequate farming technologies. Of the 18 major crops tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture, all but 1 recorded reduced output; with reductions for maize, soya beans, barley and wheat estimated at 53.67%, 77.67%, 58.32% and 28.33%, respectively (Ministry of Finance & National Planning, 2024). These are crucial inputs for manufacturers of items such as bread, beer, mealie meal, soya milk and soya chunks to mention but a few. Indeed, some manufacturers were compelled to resort to importing crucial inputs. Pasture levels were also affected, compromising availability of grazing area for livestock and the production of meat products.

The announcement of a bumper harvest, therefore, has positive implications for the manufacturing sector. Improved agricultural output will avail adequate amounts of primary farm produce for the sector. This will both increase output and lower costs for the agro-processing sub-sector, thereby stimulating industrial growth. The spillover effects into the national economy will be increased tax collections from manufacturers, employment creation, improved export competitiveness and support towards robust GDP growth.

In conclusion, whilst manufacturers share in the elation at the much-improved agricultural harvest, climatic vulnerabilities remain. The bumper harvest is as a result of favourable rainfall patterns and not factors such as improved irrigation coverage or yields. This exposes the economy to the risk of similar adverse effects at the occurrence of another failed rain season. Whilst efforts have been instituted at enhancing resilience, both in energy and agricultural infrastructure, these are not yet at the scale that would substantively reduce our rainwater dependence. As ZAM, our call is to avoid the dropping of our guard. We must continue to champion, irrigated farming, water harvesting and climate smart practices. To not do so would be to abdicate our collective responsibility to Zambian society and wilfully neglect protecting our people from climate change, when we have had the opportunity to do so.