Transformation of the Zambian Economy- Book Overview

By Michelo Maunga

I am firm believer in the immense potential of our economy. In my readings, I have come to realize there are not many countries as endowed as Zambia. We have nearly every resource; land, minerals, water, tourist attractions and people. We are at the centre of Southern Africa, whilst also being the intersection between SADC and COMESA. Right now, we are at the cusp of a truly monumental point in our history. Underneath our soils, we have the oil of the future. What oil was to America, the gulf nations and the entire world economy, is what our metals (copper, nickel, manganese, lithium and cobalt) are for the energy of the future, renewable, clean energy. And so, I wrote this book to describe this great potential. It is only when we recognize what we have, that we can truly transform our economy.

The book begins by describing our most recent economic history, particularly the decade between 2010 and 2020. Economics, itself, as a field, is current in nature. Therefore, prior to any discussion of how to harness our resources, we must first have an appreciation for where we are. The caveat here being, even within this current history we make reference to the decade prior to the above, 2000-2010. Basically, under the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) government led by late President Levy Mwanawasa, Zambia attained completion point of the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative. The result of this was a cancellation of much of our public debt, to the tune of $4 billion dollars. This was a debt burden which had its roots in the UNIP industrialization drive, and the eventual demise of 1 party rule. We had a clean slate, therefore after HIPC. Our debt to GDP ratio, between 1998 and 2005, reduced from 168% to only 17%. It was with this clean slate, that the Government of the time, the Patriotic Front, engaged a new set of creditors, and rapidly contracted debt for infrastructure investment. Thus between 2012 and 2022, our debt to GDP ratio surged from 23% to 140%. This effectively took us back exactly where we started from, and undid all the hard work of President Mwanawasa.

The book then goes into what is presently being done to remedy the above situation, such as the International Monetary Fund Program, revival of the mining sector and investments in human capital, such as through free education and increasing monetary contributions to education, health and social protection. Within the resolution of our debt crisis are deliberations on the G20 common framework which is an initiative of the Bretton Woods institutions (IMF & WBG), with parallels to HIPC. Zambia holds the pioneering status as being the first country to restructure her debt under this framework, testament to prudent debt governance in the last few years, to today where much of our debt has been restructured and the IMF projects our debt to be 69.4% of GDP by 2027.

With the above context, the book moves towards other regions that have attained economic transformation and the lessons provided for our context. For comparison purpose, here, reference  is made to Asia- as a continent, Botswana and Rwanda. These are regions and countries that, over a course of a generation, in the case of Asia and Botswana, have moved from low income to middle- and high-income countries. Zambia was once wealthier than much of Asia. In 1970, South Korea’s GDP per capita was $158, according to the World Bank. That year, Zambia’s GDP was $221.6, according to the same source. Thus, at the time, we were wealthier than this Asian nation and many others on that continent. Things have changed, to put it lightly. In 2023, South Korea’s per capita income was $33,121.4. In the same year, the Zambian figure was $1,330.7. The Korean figure is over 30 times ours. It is a similar story with Botswana, whose population was prevented from destitution by donations of food from the Zambian government in the late 60s to early 70s. Today, their per capita income is approaching $8,000. In all these cases, the book emphasizes lessons for our economy.

In summary, it would not be possible to condense the entire book into an article. There is much which has been omitted from this analysis for the purpose of brevity. We leave the rest to the eager reader, who can access a copy from Bookworld, Manda Hill Branch or alternatively the St. Ignatius Catholic Church book shop. The story of our economy is one which every Zambian and well wisher should take an interest in. The transformation we desire will require all of us. It is my hope that this work breaks down not only where we are, but where we should aim to be; that we can move from mere spectatorship and complaints towards assuming the reigns of our destiny into our own hands. Finally, development will not come from afar, it will not come from institutions. It will come from, we, the people. To get you started, I would highly recommend my book.